Betting Odds Calculator

In previous posts we saw how to predict the outcome of sports events such as football (Football Predictions Overview and Football Predictions with Poisson Distribution) or basketball (Basketball Predictions Overview). Sports betting is a fun option to test those models, and as long practiced in a “healthy” manner, is an additional form of entertainment for sports lovers. Bookmakers allow placing bets on sports events and pay out the winnings. They offer betting lines with agreed-upon odds figures that translate in both probability of the outcome and payout for a winning bet. In this article we will see what’s the relationship between odds and probability. Furthermore, we will explore the different formats bookmakers use to show odds and learn how to convert from one to another in Excel.

Basketball Predictions Overview

There is a variety of methods to predict the outcome of basketball games. In most cases, models attempt to forecast the expected margin by which a team will win (score spread), and subsequently the winner. That’s usually based on past performance data and proxy variables that measure the latent skills or strengths of each team. In this article we will analyze such data in Microsoft Excel, make simple calculations to predict future winners and scores, and evaluate the accuracy of such predictions in three major basketball leagues.