Betting Odds Calculator

In previous posts we saw how to predict the outcome of sports events such as football (Football Predictions Overview and Football Predictions with Poisson Distribution) or basketball (Basketball Predictions Overview). Sports betting is a fun option to test those models, and as long practiced in a “healthy” manner, is an additional form of entertainment for sports lovers. Bookmakers allow placing bets on sports events and pay out the winnings. They offer betting lines with agreed-upon odds figures that translate in both probability of the outcome and payout for a winning bet. In this article we will see what’s the relationship between odds and probability. Furthermore, we will explore the different formats bookmakers use to show odds and learn how to convert from one to another in Excel.

Football Predictions Pro

Excel Football Predictions Pro allows to easily access football (soccer) results, standings, statistics, and make predictions of upcoming games. This post shows how it works and highlights its key features. A free version can be downloaded following the link at the end of this article. The free version only supports one league: Spain Primera Division (La Liga). A full version supporting 20 European leagues and having additional features is also available. You can also access a web version of Excel Football Predictions Pro called XGoals.

Basketball Predictions Overview

There is a variety of methods to predict the outcome of basketball games. In most cases, models attempt to forecast the expected margin by which a team will win (score spread), and subsequently the winner. That’s usually based on past performance data and proxy variables that measure the latent skills or strengths of each team. In this article we will analyze such data in Microsoft Excel, make simple calculations to predict future winners and scores, and evaluate the accuracy of such predictions in three major basketball leagues.

Football Predictions with Poisson Distribution

In a previous article (Football Predictions Overview) we have discussed how to use past data to predict the outcome of football (soccer) games; we’ve seen how to adjust outcome probabilities and calculate goal estimates. In this article, we will learn to compute scoring probabilities and improve the predictions with the Poisson model.

The stats below show the number of goals scored and allowed in the Spanish league Primera Division (La Liga) during 2019-2020 (source data: Football Scores in Excel). When playing home, teams scored a total of 546 goals (1.44 goals per game) and when playing away 396 goals (1.04 per game). The chart underneath shows the exact goal distribution as frequency for each goal outcome. Home teams did not score any goal in 88 games, scored 1 goal in 132 games, 2 goals in 99, 3 in 38, etc. Away teams did not score in 136 games, scored 1 goal in 134, 2 in 81, etc. The goal distribution chart has a characteristic shape and it is known to follow very closely the Poisson distribution.

Football Predictions Overview

Football (soccer) is one of the most popular sports in the world, and despite being quite unpredictable sometimes, is also one of the top betting markets. It is no surprise that tremendous efforts have been put into developing models to predict the outcome of football games. Most of those models use historical data as the basis for the prediction. For example, the number of previous wins/loses determines the probability of a team winning, drawing, or losing today; or the number of goals scored/allowed over a period of time can be used to predict future scores. In that context, we can use Microsoft Excel to gather and visualize such data, and to easily calculate outcome probabilities and goal estimates.

Football Statistics Dashboard

Excel Football Statistics Dashboard allows to visualize and interpret historical football (soccer) results from previous seasons. It is a great instrument to support your betting strategies and help you make better predictions. In this article we will walk through the dashboard, explain how to use it, and how to build each of the functions, tables, pivots, and charts, so that you can adapt it to your needs.